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County profile · FIPS 04023 · Nogales, AZ

Santa Cruz County, AZ: home risks and climate

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Cruz County “Relatively Moderate” for overall risk relative to other US counties, 10th of 15 counties in Arizona by risk score. The hazards rated Relatively High or Very High here are heat wave, wildfire and lightning. These are relative ratings, not probabilities.

This profile has thinner public data than most.

We show it so you can use it, but it is not listed in search until more of its sources are on file (missing: decision-delta).

County profile · Arizona

Santa Cruz County, AZ

Overall riskRelatively Moderate
All 18 hazards for this countyrelative to other US counties, not a probability
LightningRelatively High
  • Use surge protection for electronics; ask an electrician about a whole-home surge protector.
  • Keep trees near the house healthy and trimmed.
  • Unplug sensitive electronics before a storm if you can.
WildfireRelatively High
  • Clear dead leaves and needles from gutters, the roof and under decks.
  • Keep the first 5 feet around the house free of anything that burns (mulch, firewood, plants).
  • Cover vents with 1/8-inch metal mesh to keep embers out.
Heat waveRelatively High
  • Service the AC before the hot season and clear the outdoor unit of debris.
  • Change the AC filter; a clogged filter cuts cooling.
  • Plan a cool place to go if the power or AC fails.
Inland floodingRelatively Moderate
  • Look up your FEMA flood zone, and remember that "minimal hazard" zones still flood.
  • Raise or move valuables, the furnace and the water heater off a basement floor where you can.
  • Test the sump pump and its backup before the wet season.
Strong windRelatively Low
  • Trim dead or overhanging branches before storm season.
  • Check that gutters, siding and roof edges are fastened tight.
  • Tie down or store outdoor furniture, grills and trampolines.
DroughtRelatively Low
  • Watch for new cracks in foundations, walls and door frames; drought shrinks clay soils.
  • Fix running toilets and dripping faucets.
  • If you have a well, know its depth and recent yield.
LandslideRelatively Low
  • Watch for new cracks in the ground, tilting trees or fences, and doors that stick.
  • Keep gutters and drains directing water away from slopes.
  • Know the signs of a debris flow during heavy rain.
HurricaneVery Low
  • Fit storm shutters or pre-cut, labeled plywood panels and store the fasteners with them.
  • Photograph every room and your roof before the season starts, for your insurance file.
  • Know your evacuation zone and where you would go.
TornadoVery Low
  • Pick the safe room: lowest floor, interior, no windows. Tell everyone in the house.
  • Keep shoes, a flashlight and a helmet for each person there.
  • Turn on wireless emergency alerts on every phone.
HailVery Low
  • Photograph the roof and siding now, so you have a dated before picture.
  • Ask about impact-rated (UL 2218 Class 4) shingles when the roof is replaced.
  • Know your policy’s wind and hail deductible in dollars.
  • Clean gutters so melting snow drains instead of forming ice dams.
  • Check attic insulation and air sealing; warm attics cause ice dams.
  • Keep a snow shovel, ice melt and a backup heat plan.
EarthquakeVery Low
  • Strap the water heater to the wall with two straps.
  • Secure tall furniture and TVs to studs.
  • Know how to shut off gas at the meter, and only do it if you smell gas.
AvalancheVery Low
  • Know whether your home or access road crosses avalanche paths.
  • Follow local avalanche center forecasts in winter.
  • Keep supplies for being snowed in for several days.
Coastal floodingNot Applicable
Cold waveNo Rating
Ice stormNot Applicable
TsunamiNot Applicable
Volcanic activityNot Applicable
Federal disaster declarations8latest: COVID-19 pandemic, Apr 2020
Flood-insurance claims, all years161NFIP v3, county total
Climate zone3BWarm-dry (IECC 2021) · Hot-dry region

Winterize outdoor faucets before ~Nov 17. Typical first 32°F night (50% date) at Nogales International Airport, 12 km away. Last freeze ~Mar 20.

Radon Zone 2: moderate predicted indoor radon. EPA recommends testing every home, whatever the zone.

November plan, warm-dry climateAll 12 months
  1. This weekBefore the first freeze (~Nov 17): disconnect hoses and drain outdoor faucets.
  2. This monthPress the test button on every smoke and CO alarm.
  3. This monthCheck the date on the back of every smoke and CO alarm.
  4. This monthLook under every sink and around toilets and the water heater for drips.
  5. This monthOn flat or low-slope roofs, check the coating and drains before the winter rains.
  6. WatchLook in the attic with a flashlight after the first big storm of the season.
FEMA NRI December 2025 · OpenFEMA declarations v2 · NFIP v3 · PNNL IECC 2021 · EPA radon · NOAA 1991–2020Method
§ 01

What the records say

Plain-language summary of the numbers below, compared with Arizona and the US.

By FEMA’s hazard scores (0 to 100, the share of US counties scoring lower), heat wave scores 99.0, wildfire scores 98.1 and lightning scores 88.4 in Santa Cruz County, and modeled expected annual losses from all hazards come to about $42.5 million a year across 47,632 residents.

There have been 8 federal disaster declarations covering Santa Cruz County in the OpenFEMA record, below the Arizona county median of 15 and below the national county median of 20; 2 came in the last ten years. The most recent was covid-19 pandemic (2020-04-04).

Santa Cruz County is part of the Nogales, AZ micropolitan area.

Flood-insurance (NFIP) records list 161 claims in Santa Cruz County, close to the Arizona county median of 150, 16 of them in the last ten years. Of claims with a recorded zone, 28% were outside the mapped high-risk flood zone.

Santa Cruz County sits in climate zone 3B (warm-dry) in the hot-dry Building America region and EPA radon zone 2.

At Nogales International Airport (12 km from the county’s center), the typical first 32°F night is around Nov 17 and the last around Mar 20 (50% dates, 1991–2020), which sets when to winterize outdoor faucets.

§ 02

All 18 hazards

FEMA National Risk Index December 2025. Ratings and scores are relative to other US counties, not probabilities. Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled average across buildings, people and agriculture.

HazardRisk ratingRisk scoreExpected annual lossRecorded eventsPrepare
Heat waveRelatively High99.0$15.8M47Checklist
WildfireRelatively High98.1$7.9M—Checklist
LightningRelatively High88.4$631,42086,878Checklist
Inland floodingRelatively Moderate87.4$17.6M77Checklist
LandslideRelatively Low69.1$3,145—Checklist
DroughtRelatively Low54.5$116,9381,505Checklist
Strong windRelatively Low28.8$162,57335Checklist
EarthquakeVery Low43.5$109,827—Checklist
AvalancheVery Low31.0$670Checklist
Winter weatherVery Low18.9$9,51270Checklist
HurricaneVery Low17.3$2,7406Checklist
HailVery Low9.9$18,33914Checklist
TornadoVery Low8.7$29,6881Checklist
Cold waveNo Rating0.0$00Checklist
Coastal floodingNot Applicable———Checklist
Ice stormNot Applicable———Checklist
TsunamiNot Applicable———Checklist
Volcanic activityNot Applicable———Checklist
FEMA NRI December 2025 · countiesOverall: Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Very High · community resilience Very Low
§ 03

Federal disaster declarations

Each county-level declaration in OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, counted once per disaster number.

Declarations since 195382 in the last ten years · most common: flood (3), biological (2), hurricane (1)
195319902026
DeclaredEventType
2020-04-04COVID-19 pandemicDR · Biological
2020-03-13COVID-19EM · Biological
2005-09-12Hurricane Katrina evacuationEM · Hurricane
2002-04-30Az-ryan-wildfire-4/30/2002FM · Fire
2000-10-27Severe storms and floodingDR · Severe Storm
1993-01-19Severe storms, tornadoes & floodingDR · Flood
1983-10-05Severe storms & floodingDR · Flood
1977-11-04Severe storms & floodingDR · Flood
§ 04

Flood-insurance claims (NFIP)

Claims filed under the National Flood Insurance Program, from FEMA’s NfipClaims v3 dataset (all years on file), by year of loss.

Claims, all years16116 in the last ten years · peak year 1983 (40)
197820022026

Inside vs outside the mapped high-risk zone

Zones A and V: 113 (72%)Zones B, C and X: 44 (28%)

By the rated flood zone recorded on each claim. Claims outside the high-risk zone are a reminder that “minimal hazard” is not “no hazard”. Check your own zone with an address in the Snapshot.

§ 05

Climate, radon and freeze

IECC 2021 climate zone3BInland California, southern Nevada, west Texas and New Mexico lowlands: dry heat and cool winters.Zone 3B guidancePNNL · IECC 2021
Building America regionHot-dryIntense sun and heat, little rain, monsoon storms in some areas, and hard water.November maintenance for this region
EPA radon zone2Moderate predicted indoor radon (2 to 4 pCi/L). EPA recommends testing every home.EPA map of radon zones
Typical first / last freezeNov 17 / Mar 2050% probability dates for 32°F at Nogales International Airport (USW00003196), 12 km from the county’s center.NOAA 1991–2020 normals
§ 06

This month’s plan for Santa Cruz County

Region tasks plus this county’s hazard ratings and freeze dates. Add your ZIP and systems on the Home Plan page to subscribe in your calendar.

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November7 tasks

  1. This week
    Before the first freeze (~Nov 17): disconnect hoses and drain outdoor faucets.

    Water left in a hose bib can freeze, split the pipe inside the wall, and only leak when you turn it on in spring.

    How

    Remove hoses, close the indoor shutoff valve for each outdoor faucet if you have one, and open the outside faucet to drain it.

    Before the first freezeTypical first freeze ~Nov 17 (NOAA 1991–2020, 50% date)Ready.gov: Winter weather
  2. This month
    Press the test button on every smoke and CO alarm.

    An alarm you have not heard in months may have a dead battery or sensor. NFPA recommends testing smoke alarms at least once a month.

    How

    Hold the test button until it sounds. Anything silent or chirping: replace the battery, or the whole alarm if it is past its date.

    MonthlyEvery homeNFPA: Smoke alarms
  3. This month
    Check the date on the back of every smoke and CO alarm.

    Smoke alarms wear out: NFPA advises replacing them 10 years after the manufacture date. CO alarms have their own end-of-life date printed on them.

    How

    Twist each alarm off its base and read the date. Replace any past its life; swap batteries in alarms that take them.

    YearlyEvery homeNFPA: Smoke alarms
  4. This month
    Look under every sink and around toilets and the water heater for drips.

    Slow leaks rot cabinets and subfloors long before they show. Catching one early is a washer, not a floor.

    How

    Use a flashlight: feel supply lines and the shutoff valves, look for stains, warped cabinet floors or a toilet that rocks.

    Every 3 monthsEvery home
  5. This month
    On flat or low-slope roofs, check the coating and drains before the winter rains.

    Sun cracks roof coatings, and blocked scuppers pond water on the first storm.

    How

    From a safe access point, look for blistered or cracked coating and clear debris from drains and scuppers.

    YearlyHot-dry climate region
  6. Watch
    Look in the attic with a flashlight after the first big storm of the season.

    Stains on the roof deck, wet insulation or daylight around vents show leaks early, and droppings show pests.

    How

    Stay on the joists. Look around chimneys, vent pipes and valleys, the places most leaks start.

    YearlyEvery home
  7. Watch
    Run the heat once before you need it; book a check if it has been a year.

    Heating sits idle for most of the year in warm climates and cold snaps arrive fast. A short test run finds problems while repairs are easy to book.

    How

    Switch to heat, raise the setpoint a few degrees and confirm warm air within a few minutes. A brief dusty smell is normal.

    YearlyBecause of a system you told us aboutENERGY STAR: Air-source heat pumps

December3 tasks

  1. This month
    Press the test button on every smoke and CO alarm.

    An alarm you have not heard in months may have a dead battery or sensor. NFPA recommends testing smoke alarms at least once a month.

    How

    Hold the test button until it sounds. Anything silent or chirping: replace the battery, or the whole alarm if it is past its date.

    MonthlyEvery homeNFPA: Smoke alarms
  2. Watch
    Degrease the range-hood filter.

    Grease-clogged hood filters stop pulling smoke and grease out of the kitchen and can feed a stovetop fire.

    How

    Pop the metal filter out and soak it in hot water with dish soap and baking soda, or run it through the dishwasher if the maker allows.

    Every 3 monthsEvery home
  3. Watch
    Reset sprinkler schedules for the cool season and test the rain sensor.

    Lawns need far less water in winter; overwatering wastes water and keeps foundations wet.

    How

    Cut run times, check each zone for broken heads, and press the rain sensor test if it has one.

    YearlyHot-dry climate region
§ 07

Neighbouring counties

Information, not insurance, legal or engineering advice. Ratings describe the county as a whole; your address can differ. Found an error? Send a correction.